The Constant K and The Gaussian Temporal Evolution for Covid-19 | iLSET

Paper Detail

Title

The Constant K and The Gaussian Temporal Evolution for Covid-19

Authors

Prof. Dr. Antonion J. Balloni, Cti Renato Archer, Brazil
Dr. Rogério Winter, Universidade De Campinas E Exército Brasileiro, Brazil

Abstract

We present the gaussian temporal evolution of Corona Virus, the temporal average constant Ktemporal average constant = Kt. The Kt and its standard deviation come from the analysis of 52 experimental gaussian distribution -histogram-. We have analyzed all histograms from 185 countries presented in the reference [1], and, we found 52 countries have a definite trend towards an experimental gaussian profile. As a result, we found Kt = K52 countries = (35 ± 5) days - average & standard deviation-. We also calculate using an experimental gaussian got in the reference [1], the temporal evolution for the world, the constant Kworld. We found Kworld = Kw = (47 ±  ½) days. Finally, up to this date, 20 April/2020, we have only 52 of 185 countries presenting the trends towards an experimental gaussian profile [1]. The main conclusion from this short communication is that the standard deviation found -Kt = (35 ± 5)days-, is very, which is very good.Therefore, we may conclude the maximum spread of the Corona contamination will occur in a maximum of up to 40 days from the first registered contamination and, in the worst scenario, up to 30 days. Regarding the Brazil peak of contamination, on 10 March/2020, we carried out A PREVISION, and, in that time, we have affirmed by reasoning, the peak in Brazil would be around 10-15 April/2020. Up to this date, there is a confirmation of this prevision. [1]. For OUR NEXT PREVISION, the DECREASE from contamination MUST TREND TO ZERO AMONG 30-40 DAYS AFTER THE PEAK CONTAMINATION. These are the most critical situation faced because THE REAL ZERO takes a while to get to null and, if no personal safety such as social reclusion is adopted, the contamination starts all over.

Reference
Johns Hopkins University of Medicine -Coronavirus Resource Center-: DAYLY CASES histograms retrieved from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. Last access on April 20, 2020.

Note: The paper was submitted for Congress appreciation on April 14, 2020 and has been accepted for presentation, proceedings publication by iLSET, and publication at the journal, IJonEST.

 Keywords

gesiti corona, gaussian temporal evolution, temporal average constant k, experimental gaussian profile, prevision, trends, virus contamination, methodology, jhum coronavirus resource center, covid-19  

Citation

Balloni, A.J. & Winter, R. (2020). The Constant K and The Gaussian Temporal Evolution for Covid-19. In V. M. Bradley & I. Sahin (Eds.), Proceedings of iLSET 2020--International Conference on Life Sciences, Engineering and Technology (pp. 1-5). Monument, CO, USA: ISTES Organization. Retrieved 04 December 2020 from www.2020.ilset.net/proceedings/2/.

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